I’ve taken up gambling.
Cue the cries of “It’s a mug’s game!”. Yes, ordinarily I’d agree with you, but this is subtly different. This is an experiment.
Years ago I saw a programme about betting on horses, the systems people use to choose their runner and what their overall return was. Basically when it came down to it the person who simply bet on the favourite each time did the best and more or less broke even. So bearing that in mind I thought it would be fun to see if it was possible to make a profit doing that, but with a few additional provisos:
1. Small bets only. There was £9.72 in my online account at the start of this and I want to get as much longevity out of this as possible. Therefore the maximum stake should be 30p (or 60p in total for an each way bet).
2. Only choose the favourite or second favourite unless there is good reason to do otherwise.
3. Each bet should be an each way to maximise the chance of getting SOMETHING back. In each race I’d ideally like to get back what I put in.
4. Bearing 3 in mind, only choose races where the odds are sufficiently high that just being placed at least returns the total original stake. I’ll explain this later.
Throughout the course of day 1 I broke those rules once or twice, but not by any significant amount (I twice wagered 50p and twice bet for a straight win and not each way. I also chose one horse based entirely on name.)
So, starting with £9.72, this is how the day progressed:
Bet Course / Time Horse / Odds R Stake Return S(EW) 9:00 Sprintvalley Sid Shamrock @ 9/2 L £0.60 £0.00 S(EW) 9:25 Sprintvalley Kansas Red @ 5/1 L £0.60 £0.00 S(EW) 9:52 Sprintvalley Bugs Rocket @ 4/1 P £0.60 £0.60 S(EW) 12:06 Portman Park Roughing It @ 5/1 P £1.00 £1.13 S(EW) 13:06 Portman Park Huxley Pig @ 6/1 L £0.60 £0.00 S(EW) 13:53 Portman Park Buddies @ 6/1 W £0.60 £2.76 S(EW) 14:00 Windsor Adventure Story @ 11/2 P £0.60 £0.75 S(EW) 14:10 Pontefract Truly Magic @ 5/1 L £0.60 £0.00 S 14:20 Plumpton Fairmile @ 5/2 P £0.30 £0.00* S(EW) 14:30 Windsor Retro @ 10/1 L £0.60 £0.00** S(EW) 14:32 Steepledowns Satanita @ 11/2 L £0.60 £0.00 S(EW) 14:40 Pontefract Filwa @ 5/1 P £1.00 £1.00 S(EW) 14:50 Plumpton Dean's Grange @ 14/1 L £0.40 £0.00*** S(EW) 15:02 Steepledowns Dance Marathon @ 8/1 L £0.40 £0.00 S(EW) 15:10 Pontefract Hotham @ 4/1 W £0.60 £2.04 S 15:20 Plumpton Shammy Buskins @ 8/13 L £0.50 £0.00 S(EW) 15:42 Steepledowns Birbeck Scholar @ 4/1 L £1.00 £0.00 S(EW) 16:00 Windsor Special Reserve @ 8/1 P £1.00 £1.50 S(EW) 17:30 Windsor Broughtons Para @ 8/1 P £0.60 £0.90 Total £11.60 £10.68 19 Races 10 Loses 6 Placed 2 Wins
“S” indicates a straight bet on the winner. “S(EW)” is an each way bet so essentially two bets get placed – one to win and one to finish in the top 2, 3 or 4 (depending on how many runners there are). The first bet is at the stated odds, the second is at either 1/4 those odds or 1/5 those odds (again, depending on runners). If the horse wins both bets pay out. If the horse is placed only the second bet pays out. The aim here was to only place bets where being placed was enough to break even. In the “R” (results) column, W refers to a Win, L to a Loss and P to the horse finishing placed (regardless of whether I’d placed an each way bet or not, so it could still amount to a loss).
* was a bet where the odds on the favourite looked inviting enough not to place an each way. It didn’t pay off.
** was a bet not made on the favourite or second favourite because a particular name took my fancy! It also did not pay off.
*** was a tip that wasn’t a favourite or second favourite but looked worth a go. It ALSO did not pay off.
So all in all I made a loss of just less than £1 (92p to be precise) which isn’t too bad. Perhaps if I knew something of form and handicapping then I might be able to break even! It’s not a method I’d recommend for making loads of money, but it does mean that I have enough left to try the same system again tomorrow…
